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GeoStrategist
Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Posts: 1309
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 Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 2:20 pm Post subject: |
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Sašo said: | Quote: | | You used to confuse bonds and currencies and now you confuse bonds with stocks. |
More subjective, unfounded assertions on your part, Sašo.
You further assert that when stocks fall the money will go into Treasuries. That is yet another unfounded assertion, which assumes that financial and economic conditions will somehow be conducive to buying Treasuries when the stock market and real estate bubbles burst. It isn't that simple, and there's no such assurance that domestic and foreign investors will want to put their money into Treasuries under those conditions.
I am amazed at your propensity for making entirely subjective, unfounded proclamations and assertions. They don't even appear to be designed to incite intelligent thought and debate. Rather, they just appear designed to discredit me. I'm flattered - really. I haven't had this much attention since high school. 
_________________
G.S.
Speculation fuels intellectual progress, but fear excuses the stagnant mind |
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fred
Joined: 07 Nov 2002
Posts: 2950
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| Posted: Fri May 20, 2005 3:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Sašo wrote: | | Last I heard, the issuance of new T-Bonds sounded like a done deal. Apparently they will be up for sale by next February. |
Well ... good a time as ever, since Bush isn't up for re-election. If the bonds are issued, it's one way of the Administration admitting that the deficit is long-term. I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but it is not a done deal. All those hedge fund firms rubbing their hands in glee with the possibility of more speculative trading. HAHA.
I looked at the short term T-bills and bonds. I think a three month is around 2.8, but then there's the transaction fees. I'm sticking with the short term, then decide where I want to diversify.
Have a good weekend everyone. I'm learning Spanish. I have enough trouble with the English language, but I figure I'll try opening up my language center again with what brain cells are left.
Peace.
_________________
"I am at this moment writing a lengthy indictment against our century. When my brain begins to reel from my literary labors, I make an occasional cheese dip."
— John Kennedy Toole (A Confederacy of Dunces) |
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GeoStrategist
Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Posts: 1309
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| Posted: Sun May 22, 2005 10:19 am Post subject: |
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Sašo,
My point in comparing the current dollar/Treasuries rally to the hot rally in the NASDAQ before the bubble burst was, I thought, without need for explanation. But a few others have wondered where in the heck I'm coming from on that comparison, so I'll try to explain my reasoning.
We've discussed here the fact that the markets are generally moved by expectations. That word can encompass unrealistic, or hopeful, expectations that at times, and for periods of time, don't square with the fundamental facts. You have often chided me on that score, and I bring it up now in defense of my position here.
In the case of the NASDAQ boondoggle in 2000, we're talking about a money-making environment where it's easy to let your desire for profits get ahead of reason, logic and soundness of mind. And let's remind ourselves that some people made a bundle just before the bubble burst - namely, those who were selling the tech stocks to those buyers who were all hot and bothered about 'getting in on a great deal'.
But my point is that rising values/prices did not equate, on any level, to health and stability in that market. In a few weeks it went BOOM! and those holding such stocks were left holding a bag of hot air.
Now, we've got a dollar rally going on, and you have trumpeted that fact over and over and over. My point was not to say that the dollar is in a bubble - it isn't. My point was that, ignoring the fundamentals on the dollar, investors are buying. Right now they're making profits. Right now they're profiting from the currency moves. But as you know, the currency markets are highly speculative, which means they are generally very sensitive to news and developments, though they also have their periods of relative calm (denial) when trends and fundamentals are either ignored or discounted. But to illustrate how fragile, or volatile, they are, look what happened the other day when the Bank of Korea said it wasn't going to buy dollars to stem the rise of the won. This had a powerful, but brief, downward effect on the dollar. Quickly, the Bank retracted its statement by saying it was misinterpreted, and the dollar bounced back upward.
The gist of it is that the desire for profits is much like the desire for sexual gratification - many people will take big chances, ignoring the fundamentals (she's a loose woman, high probability of having at least one STD, not really that good-looking, etc) for some quick gratification. Reason, logic and the fundamentals don't push the "buy" button, desire does.
So when you point to the dollar rally, all it really proves is that more people now have the ability to ignore the unchanged negative fundamentals for the sake of some profit gratification. This doesn't prove the dollar is more healthy, more stable, or in a fundamental turnaround.
In my view, investors are buying dollars temporarily in an environment of sagging EU growth, seeking profits (of course), with nowhere else to put their money right now. Hence, it isn't so much a desirable view toward the dollar as it is a sagging desire for the euro and other currencies/entities. This is temporary, in my view, because those negative fundamentals of the dollar will resurface - they will continue to do so down the road.
I remind you also that there are definite signs that the more sophisticated investors, both official and private, are shunning the dollar, seeing it as too risky, destined for further decline. So central banks aren't buying it. And last month foreign cash inflows were only $45 billion - a big, ominous drop from previous months.
The dollar is like the NASDAQ of 2000 in the sense that people are rushing into it in spite of almost every signpost along the way which reads "Trouble Ahead!".
_________________
G.S.
Speculation fuels intellectual progress, but fear excuses the stagnant mind |
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FC Mellon
Joined: 15 Apr 2002
Posts: 4477
Location: SoCal
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| Posted: Sun May 22, 2005 10:51 am Post subject: Some have a yen for the dollar..and some don't |
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GS wrote: | Quote: | The gist of it is that the desire for profits is much like the desire for sexual gratification - many people will take big chances, ignoring the fundamentals (she's a loose woman, high probability of having at least one STD, not really that good-looking, etc) for some quick gratification. Reason, logic and the fundamentals don't push the "buy" button, desire does.
So when you point to the dollar rally, all it really proves is that more people now have the ability to ignore the unchanged negative fundamentals for the sake of some profit gratification. This doesn't prove the dollar is more healthy, more stable, or in a fundamental turnaround.
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Perception is reality in some eyes...and in some eyes, perception(like beauty) is in the eye of the beholder(s). And, doesn't perception have a lot to due with the 'gratification of success'/'success of gratification' 'no matter the arena'..whether financial/sexual.  We humans appear to let others tell us what is beautiful/profitable/perceptable/etc...and most tend to follow the crowd like the sheep we are. I try to look for the unusual in investing my stock, because sometimes this is where the true treasure(s) can lie...especially if/when one has a knack for seeing the follies of everyone else who tend to do 'crowd think'..and usually wind up doing 'crowd sink'. 
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elitism--humanity's greatest enemy and greatest regret... |
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Sašo
Joined: 15 Apr 2002
Posts: 2337
Location: Florida, USA
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| Posted: Sun May 22, 2005 9:16 pm Post subject: |
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| GeoStrategist wrote: | Sašo,
My point in comparing the current dollar/Treasuries rally to the hot rally in the NASDAQ before the bubble burst was, I thought, without need for explanation. |
Anything you say in the above fashion will require explanation because you are confusing asset classes. Dollars do not equal Treasuries or stocks. Get your asset classes right man!
| GeoStrategist wrote: | | But a few others have wondered where in the heck I'm coming from on that comparison, |
Why am I not really surprised about that
| GeoStrategist wrote: | | We've discussed here the fact that the markets are generally moved by expectations. That word can encompass unrealistic, or hopeful, expectations that at times, and for periods of time, don't square with the fundamental facts. You have often chided me on that score, and I bring it up now in defense of my position here. |
Here is your greatest confusion. Expectations of future capital growth drives stocks as it did in the days of the .coms when greedy sales people used to tell a pack of lies about the oncoming tide of expected earnings to the middle classes who were largely ignorant of the real potential of the “high” techs.
This bears no comparison with the Treasuries rally because anybody who ever bought bonds did so for the already known value of the coupon. The rally is a bonus but for the bond buyers who are long term investors it is largely immaterial.
That is why your comparison of the NASDAQ in 2000 and the year old Treasury rally is like comparing apples and pears, or howlers and analysts
But even if it was a valid comparison, which it is not, it doesn't mean that you are right and the history will repeat itself. So basically it is a hollow argument.
| GeoStrategist wrote: | | So when you point to the dollar rally, all it really proves is that more people now have the ability to ignore the unchanged negative fundamentals for the sake of some profit gratification. This doesn't prove the dollar is more healthy, more stable, or in a fundamental turnaround. |
OK, six months ago you agreed with the advice given by the Bloomberg propagandist to the Chinese to sell US treasuries, which started this thread. This turned out to be a money loosing advice because it would have denied those sellers huge amounts of real profits. After that you supported Warren Buffet’s view on the dollar that cost him $310 million.
Looser talk man, that’s all you’ve done on this thread since last December, looser talk is what you’ve wasted your time on. Not to mention mine and other people’s time and some hard drive space too. Don't you see that?
So I challenge you to give me one, just one good word of analysis on bonds, currencies or stocks that in six months from now would end up generating profit however large or small. Just one, howler man. Or is that too much to ask? |
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GeoStrategist
Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Posts: 1309
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| Posted: Sun May 22, 2005 11:53 pm Post subject: |
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Sašo said: | Quote: | | Looser talk man, that’s all you’ve done on this thread since last December, looser talk is what you’ve wasted your time on. Not to mention mine and other people’s time and some hard drive space too. Don't you see that? |
This is how you, the owner of this forum, reward someone who tries to ignore your repeated insults, personal attacks and inuendo and tries to stick to the rules of discussion and debate that are clearly posted here. You may not agree with my position, but by your own rules you have no right to launch the sort of personal attack quoted above.
What a miserable example you set in your own forum, over and over again!
If hypocrisy, bias and plain dumb emotionalism were virtues, you'd be a saint!
Congratulations, Saint Sašo.
_________________
G.S.
Speculation fuels intellectual progress, but fear excuses the stagnant mind |
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fred
Joined: 07 Nov 2002
Posts: 2950
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| Posted: Mon May 23, 2005 7:52 am Post subject: |
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Sašo,
If GS is wasting everyones time, you do spend quite a bit of time responding to GS. Me thinks you're uncomfortable with the truth.
_________________
"I am at this moment writing a lengthy indictment against our century. When my brain begins to reel from my literary labors, I make an occasional cheese dip."
— John Kennedy Toole (A Confederacy of Dunces) |
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GeoStrategist
Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Posts: 1309
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| Posted: Mon May 23, 2005 10:35 am Post subject: |
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Sašo,
Try to get into the spirit of things here. I'd like to have an intelligent discussion - if not with you, then with others, but preferably with you too.
When I say "buying dollars", you take it so literally, mining for every perceived discrepancy in my statements, as if you're desperate, really desperate to discredit me. I don't have an excessive amount of time to explicitly define every term - didn't think it would be necessary. "Buying dollars" simply means investing in dollar-denominated assets of various kinds. Come on, Sašo, I feel like a bug under a microscope. Why are you so desperate to discredit me? Why does that mission over-ride the higher goal of carrying on intelligent discussion?
If you really believe I'm so stupid and mixed-up, then why not just let me ruin myself here? Why do you feel you have to club your opponents over the head with every conceivable, perceived 'mistake' you think they have made?
On another point, my purpose is not to provide specific investment advice for those who are looking for a profit. I wouldn't attempt to give advice along those lines, so that in 6 months someone 'made money' based on my advice. That's not my job. My job is the fundamental truth, wherever it is found, no matter how unpopular. I have a large number of investment advisory firms from around the world (and the number is growing all the time, not shrinking) that subscribe to my Magazine. Why? Because they see value in the geopolitical and economic analysis from a risk-management frame of reference. They take that analysis and form a strategy for investment, diversification and safe haven for their clients. Does that somehow bother you? My response has to be, "Get over it!"
Live and let live, Sašo. We fundamentally disagree on what is analysis and what isn't, what is truth and what isn't, what will happen in the future and what won't, etc etc etc. Live and let live, dude! You're becoming extremely intolerant of the views of others. You're going to have a coronary the way you're going. It's not worth it, is it?
_________________
G.S.
Speculation fuels intellectual progress, but fear excuses the stagnant mind |
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shurochka
Joined: 30 Oct 2002
Posts: 143
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| Posted: Mon May 23, 2005 1:49 pm Post subject: |
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| GeoStrategist wrote: |
We are nearing another of such points in time when the fundamentals will overwhelm everything else. It happened in '29, and this one's going to be much worse. |
This begs 2 questions:
1. What does "nearing" mean? As time goes on, all future events become closer to us. Perhaps something really bad is indeed going to happen 100 years from now. But none of us will be around to praise your wisdom. Unless you give us time frame the statement is meaningless.
2. Would you care to describe how much worse it's going to be? Anything that may later be checked against reality will do. |
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shurochka
Joined: 30 Oct 2002
Posts: 143
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| Posted: Mon May 23, 2005 1:58 pm Post subject: |
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| GeoStrategist wrote: |
We fundamentally disagree on what is analysis and what isn't, what is truth and what isn't, what will happen in the future and what won't, etc etc etc. |
Finally, something to agree upon. Sašo may have somewhat different take on it, but here's my view. Analysis is thinking based on thorough understanding of the reality that results in better understanding of the past and current events and, hopefully, in the meaningful forecast of the future.
You repeatedly demonstrated (and at times even admitted) your lack of understanding and knowledge. As for forecasts, those have been counter to the observable reality. It is unfortunate that it doesn't seem to bother you. |
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GeoStrategist
Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Posts: 1309
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| Posted: Mon May 23, 2005 2:02 pm Post subject: |
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shurocka,
Ditto to you what I wrote to Sašo. It's not in anyone's interests here to engage in the low level of bickering you and Sašo seem to prefer.
_________________
G.S.
Speculation fuels intellectual progress, but fear excuses the stagnant mind |
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shurochka
Joined: 30 Oct 2002
Posts: 143
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| Posted: Mon May 23, 2005 2:16 pm Post subject: |
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| GeoStrategist wrote: | | It's not in anyone's interests here to engage in the low level of bickering you and Sašo seem to prefer. |
I expected nothing less from you. A thourogh and meaningful answer, as usual. |
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Sašo
Joined: 15 Apr 2002
Posts: 2337
Location: Florida, USA
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| Posted: Tue May 24, 2005 8:24 am Post subject: |
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| GeoStrategist wrote: | | If you really believe I'm so stupid and mixed-up, then why not just let me ruin myself here? Why do you feel you have to club your opponents over the head with every conceivable, perceived 'mistake' you think they have made? |
GS,
What you call clubbing over the head was only my vein attempt to get you to see the error of your ways. It is obviously not working. I am very disappointed because when we started this forum we swore not to allow it to be used for political propaganda. Unfortunatelly you've insisted on nothing but and in the process driven away some of our most valuable members. You have ruined yourself but you refuse to see it and with that you have ruined part of this forum too.
So, the truth is that I am feeling partly guilty myself for letting you ramble on for such a long time. Specially today when the bonds rally to a new two year high (them Asians pulling the plug no doubt ) and the dollar is nowhere near collapse.
I am glad you have a lot of subscribers but maybe that's another good reason to limit your political propaganda to your website instead of flooding mine with it.
Here is an old quote I saw last week that reminded me of you:
All newspaper and journalistic activity is an intellectual brothel from which there is no retreat. - Leo Tolstoy |
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